Talk:Republicanism in Canada

Merge Proposal

I propose merging Debate on the monarchy in Canada into this page, Republicanism in Canada. Both pages have content relevant to each other, and lend context to each other's subjects. Seems to me that it doesn't make sense to have separate pages. TDK1881 (talk) 01:53, 31 May 2022 (UTC)

Opinion polling

User:Miesianiacal believes that the section on opinion polling is POV and had tagged it as such (see Republicanism_in_Canada#Opinion_polling. His preference is either to remove the section entirely or replace it with "Polls have been conducted on the subject of abolition of the Canadian Crown." My view is this is a meaningless statement as it only states that polling occurred without mentioning what the polling shows. I have asked him to suggest wording that actually references the polling results but he has been unwilling to do this and said instead the entire section should be removed. I maintain that polls showing support for a republic are relevant to an article on republicanism.

Is the section NPOV? If so, how can it be improved? Wellington Bay (talk) 16:37, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

The section shouldn't be there at all. Any mention of polls should be stiched into the broader text, as it is at Monarchism in Canada. But, cherrypicking polls to back up a personal view is contrary to WP:NPOV and WP:OR. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 17:20, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

The polls are not cherry picked, they are the most recent polls available and the only ones I'm aware of that have been taken during the reign of King Charles. If there are other polls taken in the past two years please post a link to them and they can be included. Wellington Bay (talk) 17:39, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

You are inserting a claim that the majority of Canadians want a republic and a referendum, when, 1) only those who're polled give responses and 2) the sources you provide don't necessarily back up what you're trying to assert. What the pollsters actually say is, "Canadians are conflicted on the future role of the monarchy" (about results of a poll that uses the inaccurate and loaded terms "British monarchy", "monarchy as our head of state", "formal ties", "sever ties", "traditions like Canada’s relationship with the monarchy", "prefer a Canadian head of state", etc); "Canadians are very much split on their opinions when it comes to the monarchy"; while "(54%) agree (20% strongly/33% somewhat) that now that Queen Elizabeth II’s reign has ended, Canada should end its formal ties to the British monarchy", "a majority (55%) agrees (17% strongly/38% somewhat) that the constitutional monarchy helps to define Canadian identity and should continue to be our form of government"; "for one thing, royal fortunes rise and fall"; "thirty-one per cent think the monarchy is actually harmful for Canada, 18 per cent thing it is beneficial, but a solid 46 per cent think it is neutral"; "Canadians were asked if they agree that 'in an ideal world we wouldn't have the monarchy in Canada, but there are more important things for the country to deal with,' a stonking 79 per cent agreed, including 85 per cent of people who would vote to abolish"; "47% Canadians said they would vote to become a republic in a referendum tomorrow" (47% is not a majority). That's why there's an extensive section at Debate on the monarchy in Canada to cover all the biases, inconsistencies, and contradictions that you're not presenting here (or in any of the other two articles you inserted the exact same paragraph). --₪ MIESIANIACAL 18:00, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

":only those who're polled give responses" - that is how polling works. That's also why I used the word "suggests". As long as the poll is conducted with a random sample of the population and the sample is of a statistically significant size then it is considered valid, and a poll of 1000 people is a statistically significant sample size yielding a poll that "is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20." Further I am not "inserting a claim that the majority of Canadians want a republic and a referendum". The Ipsos poll found that "54% Say Canada Should End Ties to Monarchy". 54% is a majority. Wellington Bay (talk) 18:21, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

I've already outlined the mass of information you didn't insert here. If you insist on keeping your paragraph in the article, the rest of the poll info will have to be added to balance and give full context. Then you'll have to justify why this article should repeat, in full, the same info already covered at Debate on the monarchy in Canada. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 18:40, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

"Polls conducted on the subject of abolition of the Canadian Crown in 2022 and 2023, following the accession of Charles III, suggested that a majority of Canadians think there should be a referendum on the future of the monarchy and that more Canadians favour becoming a republic than do retaining the monarchy" is an accurate and neutral summary. If you insist we can have an RFC on the issue. Wellington Bay (talk) 19:52, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

The word "suggested" alone communicates that the whole is an interpretation. And, again, the interpretation leaves out a lot of facts, such as:

• Forty one per cent finding the monarchy unfavourable is not a majority
• Forty seven per cent stating they would vote to abolish the Crown is not a majority
• Forty per cent saying they would vote for abolition today is not a majority
• Asking about "sever[ing] ties" with the "British monarchy" is a leading question with inaccurate phrasing
• Fifty five per cent agreeing the monarchy helps define Canadian identity and ought to remain Canada's form of government is not a majority in favour of Canada becoming a republic
• Seventy nine per cent agreeing there're more important issues to deal with doesn't indicate an eagerness for change

There's also the question of why would this article mention only polls conducted in 2022 and 2023?

A more neutral wording would be, polls on the Canadian monarchy have been regularly conducted since the 1990s, showing an increasing disaffection with the monarchy, but, also internal contradictions in specific poll results. In regard to the polling of Canadians, the Lord Ashcroft pointed out in 2023 that "royal fortunes rise and fall." The polls themselves have been accused of using "inconsistent and sometimes ambiguous wording" and monarchists and republicans have objected to the way some questions are worded. Both groups also note, and it has been confirmed by polls, that Canadians are not well educated about the monarchy and its role.

That one paragraph doesn't require its own section, either. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 16:16, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

"Polls suggest" is my preferred wording based on what I learned in stats class years ago as polling is always an estimation and no poll is 100% accurate but has a margin of error depending on the sample size, for instance, - "a margin of error of plus or minis 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20" which is why I prefer using a term like "suggest" rather than stating a poll result with more definitive languagge - but this is the case with all polls, not just the polls being cited here so you're reading far too much into my word choice. Looking at various reportage of polling results the more usual wording is "polls show" or "According to a poll by [name of polling firm] x% of respondents say y". Wellington Bay (talk) 17:08, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

Are you fine with the proposed wording? --₪ MIESIANIACAL 21:32, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

I haven't had time to look at all your sources - but I don't see the relevance of Boyce (2008) to polls taken in the 2020s. Applying Boyce to them is WP:SYNTH. Indeed, trying to make sweeping statements about the last 30 years appears to also be a WP:SYNTH violation. You also seem to be cherry picking Ashcroft. You pull out the quote "royal fortunes rise and fall" but ignore the main part of his statement "Older people tend to be more attached to the monarchy, so there is a view that as the generations pass, the connection between their country and the U.K. and its institutions will come to seem ever more remote". I don't think your summary is a fair representation of what the Post article actually says or even what Ashcroft says. I mean you are trying to mitigate the 2023 poll by referring to the Boyce and Ekos sources from decades earlier and trying to apply it to the most recent poll. Again, that's clearly SYNTH. This isn't supposed to be an argumentative essay but you appear to be approaching it as such. Wellington Bay (talk) 23:07, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

That's not a correct interpretation of WP:SYNTH. Regardless, why do you feel it's of service to readers to mention only polls from 2022 and 2023, when polls have been conducted since the 1970s, at least? --₪ MIESIANIACAL 23:23, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

I disagree. You mention the Ashcroft poll (in passing), and then mitigate it with sources that are about much earlier polls. You follow Ashcroft with these statements: "The polls themselves have been accused of using "inconsistent and sometimes ambiguous wording"[3] and monarchists and republicans have objected to the way some questions are worded" as if these are statements about the 2023 poll, but in fact the statements are about polls that were taken decades earlier and of course, the sources do not actually refer to the 2023 poll because they predate it by decades. Taking old statements and treating them as if they apply to more recent events is clearly synthesis because it is you who are arguing that the 2023 poll using "ambiguous wording" etc, not the sources. Moreover, your proposed wording completely ignores the actual findings of the poll, namely: "54 per cent majority thinks Canada would vote to become a republic. A mere 18 per cent thinks Canada would vote to remain a constitutional monarchy. But asked how they would vote today (the poll of more than 2,000 Canadians was taken in February and March), and the republican impulse weakens. Twenty-three per cent would vote to keep the king, and 47 per cent would vote to abolish." Your proposed wording goes far further than "burying the lede" - it completely erases it. The fact that "Twenty-three per cent would vote to keep the king, and 47 per cent would vote to abolish" appears nowhere in your wording. Wellington Bay (talk) 23:38, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

This reads as if poll on the subject are totally unreliable and not worth discussing at all. I fail to see how this is anywhere close to NPOV—blindlynx 22:23, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

All polls have a margin of error. Around 1,000 is the typical sample size for a credible scientific poll and the margin of error would generally be plus or minus 3 percent 19 times out of 20. That's not POV, nor is it "totally unreliable", it's how scientific polling works and its an accepted method of research in social sciences. In fact, given that the poll cited above had a sample size of 2,000 it's actually considered more accurate than typical opinion polls. Please see Opinion_poll#Margin_of_error_due_to_sampling. Now if you want to propose that Wikipedia amend its Wikipedia:Reliable sources policy so that scientific public opinion polls should be considered not to meet the standards of reliability for Wikipedia and that they therefore should be excluded from articles, you can do so, but given that they are an accepted device in social sciences and are reported on in high-quality newspaper, journals, etc I think you'd have difficulty getting such a policy passed. Wellington Bay (talk) 22:59, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

I'm replying to the 'neutral' wording above, not to your comment. I completely agree with you that using old sources to discuss recent poll is inappropriate—blindlynx 22:40, 10 April 2024 (UTC)

You take issue with the word "majority" but I think you misread what the passage says. It doesn't say a majority of Canadians want to abolish the monarchy, it says "a majority of Canadians think there should be a referendum on the future of the monarchy" and indeed according to IPSOS "A majority (58%) of Canadians agree (20%/38% somewhat) that Justin Trudeau should hold a referendum on the future of the monarchy in Canada"[1] (58% 'is a majority). The rest of the section says "more Canadians favour becoming a republic than do retaining the monarchy" and this is also correct. It does not say a majority it says more Canadians favour becoming a republic than not. I don't see the point of your list above of what is not a majority since the passage does not state otherwise, it is very specific that the term majority applies to the proportion of Canadians who think there should be a referendum. Wellington Bay (talk) 02:25, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

The article should include the polls and I think it's useful to set them apart in a section of their own, otherwise they will be lost among the general text. I would certainly expect an article on a political movement to give some indication of how popular that movement is. Celia Homeford (talk) 10:00, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

This article defiantly needs a table or chart with polling data, having that info just in prose isn't great—blindlynx 22:47, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

Include the latest polls, fwiw. Besides, the Supreme Court has already made it quite clear, that the monarchy in Canada can only be abolished, via approval from the federal Parliament & all ten provincial legislatures. GoodDay (talk) 20:35, 8 April 2024 (UTC)

Yes. I think inclusion of reliable polling on whether Canadians support the maintenance of the monarchy or it abolition is appropriate, where properly balanced (with contradicting polls). Polling on whether Candians want a referendum on it seems inappropriate though because that is not a legal way to accomplish abolition, and focusing on a referendum suggests it is.-- Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 04:16, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

Referenda have been used in the past to decide on Constitutional amendments in Canada eg the Charlottetown Accord. They are not required by the Constitution's amending formula but it's incorrect to say they are not legal. In fact, a referendum would be required as "since the Meech Lake Accord was negotiated behind closed doors in 1990, several provinces have passed legislation requiring provincial referenda to ratify significant changes to the Constitution"[2] which is why a referendum was held on the Charlottetown Accord. Wellington Bay (talk) 09:29, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

There's no opposition to polling being included. The question is how to include it; both where in the article to put it (I believe it doesn't need its own section; like it doesn't at Monarchism in Canada) and how to word it. It's still entirely unclear why WB wants only the 2022-2023 polls to be mentioned; they're not the only polls ever conducted. I agree with you that a more balanced and brief summary of polling overall is deeded; ie the numbers vary and are often internally self-contradictory. We have reliable sources supporting that and a whole section at Debate on the monarchy in Canada to expand on it. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 14:04, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

"It's still entirely unclear why WB wants only the 2022-2023 polls to be mentioned; they're not the only polls ever conducted" - I think I've said this before and that it's also self-evident: because they're the most recent and the most relevant polls and because there's a new reign. There's also no need to repeat the entire polling section from Debate on the monarchy in Canada as there is a link to that page and section. If you want to add a second paragraph about earlier polls we can discuss that but rather than burying the lede at the bottom of a lengthy recounting of polls from the past 50 years it makes more sense to lead with the polls from Charles' reign before contrasting them with polls from his mother's reign. Wellington Bay (talk) 14:39, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

How about we include some secondary sources rather than arguing about polls: With the turn of the 21st century, calls to abolish the Canadian monarchy have resurged and various polls indicate that a majority of Canadians would prefer a Canadian head of state (Spicer 2007; Hepburn 2012; Conacher 2013). Monarchy advocates argue for its continued relevance in parliamentary function and as a symbol of Canadian identity and values. While critics challenge these claims, the mainstream debate on both sides of this issue is devoid of diverse perspectives. In particular, concerns of Canadians of colour are conspicuously absent. ; Most Canadians want to drop monarchy ; An Angus Reid opinion poll in April revealed that 51 per cent of respondents from across the country want to abolish the monarchy, a steep rise from previous years. . There's no shortage of articles talking about this, both recent and older ones—blindlynx 14:55, 9 April 2024 (UTC)

Who are Conacher, Hepburn, and Spicer? What works of theirs are you referencing? They're not in this article or Debate on the monarchy in Canada.

We need to be careful about using news reports with eye-catching headlines instead of more detailed analysis; Boyce and Brean, for example.

Boyce says nothing about calls for abolishing the Canadian monarchy "resurging" at the turn of the 20th century. In fact, he says only a "near majority of Canadians" favour abolition of the Crown and "a 2005 IPSOS Reid poll [...] found that 79 per cent supported constitutional monarchy, with 62 per cent believing it defined Canadian identity [...] Support for abolition in a 2002 EKOS poll ranged from 54 per cent in Quebec to only 25 per cent in the prairies", which is quite the opposite of what's in your proposed wording. Boyce does state "we have no fool-proof guide to the intensity of public disatisfaction with the constitutional status quo in Canada" and claims polls since the 1990s show "a steady increase in the number of Canadians disaffected with the monarchy", but, at the same time, supports what I've been saying about variations and contradictions, noting "marked fluctuations" and "internal contradictions" (his words) in poll results since the '90s and attributing them to "ignorance or poorly worded questions", which is also noteworthy when considering poll results.

Brean's own headline is, in part, "Canadians won't abolish the monarchy". He writes that the Ashcroft poll found "47 per cent would vote to abolish" if voting in a referendum "today", "40 per cent would vote for abolition" in a referendum "tomorrow", and it illustrates "that Canadians generally accept the monarchy as not 'ideal,' but as the way it is."

One can lead off a paragraph about polling in this article with the 2022 and 2023 polls. But, DK is correct to ask what relevance a referendum has to replicanism (no one said only republicans favour a referendum; it's information suited to Debate on the monarchy in Canada) and "more Canadians favour becoming a republic than do retaining the monarchy" is based on what? No poll asks about a republic; they either use the leading wording "cut ties with the British monarchy" or suggest an elected head of state. One poll that found 51% in favour of "cutting ties with the British monarchy" was negated by another poll concluding 47% wanted to keep those "ties". One poll determined only 36% preferred an elected head of state and another determined 55% agreed the monarchy should remain Canada's form of government and Canada’s "relationship with the monarchy" is useful. Even within the 2022-2023 polls there's complexity that needs to be addressed to avoid violating WP:NPOV.

I'd say just draw some key bits of information from Boyce and Brean and leave the rest up to Debate on the monarchy in Canada#Polls. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 05:18, 10 April 2024 (UTC)

It's a quote and i urge you to read the paper it's from.

What years are those polls from? It seems like the 51% figure is from 2022 Angus Reid poll: the 47% figure is (best i can tell) from a 2005 TSC poll; 36% from a 2010 poll by Angus Reid; and i have no idea where you got the 55%?—blindlynx 23:01, 10 April 2024 (UTC)

What is a quote?

All the polls I mentioned just above are covered in Debate on the monarchy in Canada#2020s. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 15:38, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

"With the turn of the 21st century, calls to abolish the Canadian monarchy have resurged and various polls indicate that a majority of Canadians would prefer a Canadian head of state (Spicer 2007; Hepburn 2012; Conacher 2013). Monarchy advocates argue for its continued relevance in parliamentary function and as a symbol of Canadian identity and values. While critics challenge these claims, the mainstream debate on both sides of this issue is devoid of diverse perspectives. In particular, concerns of Canadians of colour are conspicuously absent." is a quote from this paper [3]

Surely you see how a poll cannot be 'negated by another poll' conducted 17 years earlier!? —blindlynx 17:05, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

Also the 55% poll comes from the 2022 ipsos poll doesn't just show Canadians think 'the constitutional monarchy should remain Canada's form of government' but also shows around 57% want to get rid of the british monarchy in Canada which certainly bears mentioning given the sharp divide between in opinion of the Canadian institution and it's current incumbent family—blindlynx 17:07, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

We should have an academic analysis of these polls not to support themselves..... pure junk until we get academic assessments. Moxy🍁 19:30, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

We can include polling reported in secondary sources. We should avoid doing our own meta-analysis as that gets us into WP:SYNTH territory. Wellington Bay (talk) 19:37, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

Exactly, to be clear i think we should report what polls say not pick out single questions in them or claim polls negate each other.

A quick scan of wiki library hasn't turned up any recent academic articles analyzing polls but general but i'm sure they're out there, we just have to find them—blindlynx 20:38, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for the link, but, I don't see Hepburn, Spicer, or Conacher mentioned anywere on that page. It's a pretty blatantly biased source. But, it meets WP:RS (I think). So, we could add what Sajnani thinks about "resurgences". It doesn't eliminate Boyce and Brean, though.

I made no mention of a poll from 17 years earlier negating any other poll. I said the response to one poll question asked in 2022 was negated by the response to another poll question asked in 2022, showing the claim "[polls in 2022 and 2023 show] more Canadians favour becoming a republic than do retaining the monarchy" is false. It's also indeed WP:SYNTH.

The issue right now is WB wants focus on polls in 2022 and 2023, but, we don't have academic analysis of those polls; only of one poll--the Ashcroft one. I still hold we should compose one short paragraph about polling overall, using the outside analysis we have, which cover the last 20 years. Something like: Polls on the Canadian monarchy, which have been accused of being poorly worded, have been regularly conducted since the 1990s. Those since 2000 have showed an increasing disaffection with the monarchy, but, also oscillations and internal contradictions, giving no certainty on the level of disaffection with the status quo. Citizens for a Canadian Republic also noted, and it has been confirmed by polls, that Canadians are not well educated about the monarchy and its role. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 21:26, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

Look if you have a better recent source i would love to see it, you have access to the whole Sajnani paper through wiki library, it's not perfect but it is an example of a recent peer reviewed academic source making a claim and we should find more sources like it.

One poll that found 51% in favour of "cutting ties with the British monarchy" was negated by another poll concluding 47% wanted to keep those "ties". which polls are you talking about here? Best i can tell those numbers come from the 2022 Angus Reid poll and the 2005 TSC poll which are 17 years apart!

Implying that polls being seen as poorly worded by interest groups or Canadians level of understanding of the monarchy effects the results of polls without a source saying that is also synth btw. It would be better to say what those groups objections are and make it clear we don't know that this effects public opinion unless we have a RS saying so—blindlynx 22:02, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

It's not an implication. It's a reliably sourced statement and not sourced solely to interest groups (one of which is the only republican interest group in Canada, which is pretty relevant to this article). If you don't like that sentence, it can be left out. Or CCR's objection to wording, specifically, can be added in with its statement about Canadians being generally unaware of civics.

I told you both poll questions came from 2022 polls. It's irrelevant, anyway, now it seems we've agreed not to engage in WP:SYNTH. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 22:54, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

i think the most we should say is just 'Polls since 2000 have showed an increasing disaffection with the monarchy, but, also oscillations and internal contradictions, giving no certainty on the level of disaffection with the status quo.' with refs and such link it to Debate on the monarchy in Canada and clean up that article—blindlynx 12:53, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

I'd support that. I think it's a succinct, fair, and clear "preface" of sorts to the full section at Debate on the monarchy in Canada. --₪ MIESIANIACAL 14:59, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

Too vague. "Increasing disaffection" could mean a rise from 10% to 20% when in fact every recent poll shows more people opposed to having a monarchy than in favour. Discussing polls without actually citing numbers is not very helpful

What is wrong with the current passage?:

Polls conducted on the subject of abolition of the Canadian Crown in 2022 and 2023, following the accession of Charles III, stated that 58% of Canadians think there should be a referendum on the future of the monarchy and between 40% and 54% of Canadians favour becoming a republic. However, pollster Michael Ashcroft cautioned that "for change to happen in Canada, the issue would have to find its way to the top of the political agenda. It’s hard to see what could be the catalyst for that to happen.”

Wellington Bay (talk) 13:31, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

I guess the POV issue is that there's a lot of criticism of the polls? So a line about that might fix it, but in all honesty i don't see how complaints about wording make a difference to the accuracy of polls. I don't really see what the POV is past that—blindlynx 19:18, 13 April 2024 (UTC)

Realistically i think Debate on the monarchy in Canada is a dumpster fire of OR and SYNTH that needs our attention more and once we have a handle on that we can worry about the polls section here—blindlynx 19:20, 13 April 2024 (UTC)

I reviewed much of this debate and a lot of the support for inclusion of any of these polls seem to employ plenty of weasel words that overemphasize the importance of the polls, ando violates WP:POV andWP:WEIGHT. I don't really see much purpose beyond acknowledging that there is some disagreement on the topic, with support for both sides. Lostsandwich (talk) 08:57, 18 April 2024 (UTC)

References