User:EventHorizon/Oktober conflict

This page should have been deleted, by consensus of the Wikipedia community, around January 10. I believe this matieral was valid. I have moved it out of the Wikipedia namespace, and will decide what to do with this material from here. EventHorizon talk 21:56, 14 Jan 2005 (UTC)

The Oktober Conflict is a sociological event predicted, by some, to occur in American society within the next decade. The unusual spelling is possibly used to connote an Eastern European sensibility, while the choice of month refers to an unsupported assertion that the conflict would occur in October 2008, shortly before a U.S. presidential election. In fact, the "Conflict" could occur at any time, and (as a projected event) might not occur at all. The most common prediction is that the conflict will begin as a rift between an increasingly liberal professional upper-middle class and an entrenched " corporate elite".

Source of the Conflict: "Middle-class squeeze"

The upper class "corporate elite" has been charged with "looting" during the 1990s and 2000s; it is alleged that corporate downsizings, failed privitization efforts, educational devaluation, and rising healthcare and housing costs represent a concentration of wealth in the hands of a few upper class individuals, at the expense of the middle-class. The income effects of these changes have resulted in declining real wages for middle-class individuals, creating a phenomenon called "middle-class squeeze."

If "middle-class squeeze" continues unchecked, a revolution in the United States is virtually inevitable —the aggregate dashed ambitions of the middle and upper-middle classes will impel them toward anti-corporate resistance. This revolution need not necessarily be violent; even most proponents of the Oktober Conflict condemn violence. Some believe that the peaceful instatement of liberal-to-socialist societies in the European Union countries and Canada represents a peaceful analogue of the Oktober conflict.

Forms of the Oktober Conflict

The Oktober Conflict could take a number of forms. The roles played by the urban and rural lower classes, the United States govermnent, and the international community remain unclear, and any of these interest groups could play kingmaker in deciding the outcome of the conflict.

The most common scenario is a peaceful one, the " gradualist" or "quiet infiltration" scenario. The U.S. federal and state governments, NGOs, and education consist, predominantly, of middle- to upper-middle-class individuals with liberal political leanings. Some wealthy individuals, including dot-com entrepreneurs and some celebrities, also espouse liberal politics. The fundamental change expected in a "quiet infiltration" scenario is the enaction of policies which place quality of life (including reduced work hours), economic and racial equality, civil and human rights at higher priorities than property rights, resulting in dramatic changes in law, government, and society.

In this scenario, the lower classes would benefit from the social welfare programs enacted by the initatiors of the "conflict". Therefore, it is likely that the urban poor would support them. However, the stances taken by the rural lower- to lower-middle classes, who have been sold conservative politics in a concerted right-wing effort (see: What's the Matter with Kansas?) are unclear.

An alternative is the "leverage" scenario. Certain skills— in particular, technological skills— are expected to become very important than ever before, resulting in negative net unemployment in the information technology and health technology sectors, giving upper-middle class individuals more leverage. A result of this would be educational revaluation. In this scenario, the middle and upper-middle classes would use their gained leverage to reverse the "middle class squeeze" of the 1990s and 2000s.

Finally, a highly unlikely "rebellion" scenario is sometimes proposed, whereby middle- and upper-middle-class people, angered by their dashed ambitions, engage in aggressive revolt against society. It would only occur if the upper class showed a remarkable lack of generosity by refusing to let the above-described changes happen. As liberal-minded individuals infiltrate the upper classes through entrepreneurship and accumulation of cultural capital, this scenario becomes increasingly unlikely.